| Summary: | Scottish demography is one of population ageing and decline in the longer term. According to the GROS 2008-based projections, the proportion of the working-age population will decrease from 62.6% in 2008 to 59.7% in 2033. Simultaneously, the proportion of those aged 65+ will increase sharply from 19.7% in 2008 to 24.1% by 2033. These changes in demography will affect individual prosperity and public welfare. This dissertation investigates the effects that various levels of migration, fertility, and mortality may have on reducing this ageing and declining population, as well as the ageing work force. It is found that a positive migration of 20,000 (young) migrants annually would maintain a stable working-age population over the projection period to 2050. Improvements in mortality rate will have little effect on the working-age population, while higher fertility may not have a short-term impact, however, may have a positive long-term impact. This dissertation also examines an alterna tive approach to help maintain public welfare in the form of volunteer labour. A model of volunteer behaviour is derived and then combined with the population forecasts. The main findings of the empirical model tested in this dissertation show that fertility and mortality alone would not prevent the supply of volunteer labour from decreasing by 2050. A positive net-migration of 5,000 young migrants annually would maintain the level of volunteers. Given assumptions about the dynamics of volunteer behaviour and natural change only, a rise of 6% in the participation rates of people aged 45-74 would also maintain current volunteer levels by 2050. Finally, this dissertation examines the role of people aged 65+ specifically. Over the last decade, they have accounted for the largest percentage increase in volunteer participation rates. Given both their propensity to volunteer and increasing number, it is reasonable to assume there will be a large pool of older volunteer labour in the future. It is found that the older volunteers can be organised in such a way, as to bring economic benefit in areas such as age-related care to their fellow cohorts; therefore, it would be a partial solution in maintaining individual prosperity and public welfare.
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