Regional economic and environmental analysis

• Main Author: McIntyre, Stuart G.
• Published: University of Strathclyde 2012
• Subjects: 330
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.576290

Scotland has a set of legislative targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, measured on a territorial basis, introduced by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. In addition, the Scottish Government have adopted as a 'national outcome' target a reduction in the emissions embodied in Scottish consumption activities. These targets differ in terms of whether the emissions embodied in exports are included (territorial) or whether the emissions embodied in imports are included (consumption) in the emissions total. The first area of work in this thesis is quantifying the different emissions totals that can be calculated under both of these accounting principles using the currently available data for Scotland. Using the input-output framework, we explore the construction, and the implications, of this range of measures. We also identify some wider issues that arise in the adoption of different emissions targets for a region within an interdependent national economy. The second area of work focuses on understanding the sectoral level relationships which underpin national output and CO2 emissions in Scotland. It is often the case that the focus of policy and public debate is on 'the number' (i.e. the emissions total) and changes in it. Underpinning this 'number', however, is a series of complex economic relationships at the sectoral level which we want to better understand. We seek to better understand these relationships in Scotland using the tools of linkage and key sector analysis. The final strand of work in this thesis looks to explore the compatibility of the current focus of economic policy in Scotland on increasing export demand, with the environmental objectives of reducing Scottish territorial and consumption emissions. There is great emphasis placed by the Scottish Government on the economic impacts of investing in 'green' industries, while little is said of the environmental impact of more general growth in export demand, even though this is a clear economic policy priority.Using a CGE model framework, we explore the implications on both the territorial and consumption emissions totals of a general increase in export demand with flow migration and no-migration. These two cases provide interesting insights on both the long-run impact on these emissions totals, as well as on the dynamic adjustment to the long-run total. The analysis in this thesis answers a number of interesting research questions, and uncovers some additional questions which will be the focus of future research. It is clear that the economy and the environment are interdependent. What needs to be better understood is which parts of the economy impact on the environment, how trade influences the impact of our economy on the environment, and how economic and environmental policy objectives are interdependent.