Pathways to a sustainable transport future (Delhi 2030) : developing and applying a furtures decision making framework

• Main Author: Saxena, Sharad
• Published: University of Oxford 2012
• Subjects: 388.4095456
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.571660

Current trends in transport constitute one of the main challenges to sustainable development. Air pollution, grid-lock congestion, road accidents, energy consumption and CO2 emissions from the transport sector pose a growing challenge to sustainable development efforts. There is an urgent need to identify decision frameworks that will help in identifying an alternative sustainable transport future for our cities. This thesis seeks to develop a decision making framework that can be applied to urban planning to assist strategic policy making and addresses the core question - How can a desirable future be linked to policy making in the present? The thesis's particular originality is in developing a novel strategic decision making approach which combines the backcasting technique with participatory multi-criteria analysis. This decision making approach facilitates a structured and participative decision process. The thesis undertakes a case study which applies this new approach in Delhi - a rapidly evolving megacity. The key findings and recommendations are that: • In a Business as Usual scenario, Passenger traffic levels till the year 2030 will rapidly increase resulting in carbon dioxide emissions rising to 29 million tons of CO2 compared to just 4 million tons in 2000. • Based on equity considerations of equal per capita emissions and India's own voluntary emissions intensity target, a desirable level by 2030 would be around 15 million tons of CO2 • Potentially three possible future images could deliver this target. One would be technology led, the second focusing on urban intensification linked to transit oriented development and the third with a greater emphasis on demand management. There are various pathways leading to each image and an assessment of each against various criteria revealed a preference for transforming the two wheeler fleet, improving public transport modes and elevating non motorized modes as the preferred modes of travel.