| Summary: | Although the sedentarization of pastoralist societies is occurring at a fast pace in numerous places, most of the research conducted on pastoralism focuses on nomadic pastoralism and transhumant pastoralism. In these societies, the central questions relate to vulnerability to droughts, livestock marketing, access to natural- resources and the role of livestock in managing them. In comparison income diversification and the interface between pastoralism, agro-pastoralism and cropping has been insufficiently analysed. It may be that many of the forthcoming policy challenges will be on this subject. The on-going sedentarisation process of these communities is not happening without the risk of conflicts, exclusion, and marginalization. This research contributes to the understanding of the interface between pastoralism, agro-pastoralism and cropping by analyzing the determinants of activity choice in sedentarizing communities. The ultimate goal of this analysis is to identify which processes have to be supported by an adequate and transparent policy framework to reduce the risk of future conflicts in areas where production strategies are evolving at a fast pace. The theoretical framework is tested in the Tanzanian context using primary data collected during a field survey in 2006. The study area located in Northern Tanzania, is spread over two districts (Simanjiro and Monduli) and comprises three villages: Loiborsoit-A, Naitolya and Lolkisale. In this area economic and social pressures favour a shift from traditional livestock-keeping activities to cropping activities and have therefore, in turn, a strong impact on livelihood strategies and land-use patterns. Three research questions explore the dynamics at the interface using Bayesian econometrics and Gibbs sampling techniques. The determinants of land-allocation and the influence of social characteristics (such as ethnicity, origins, gender) on access to land are first analyzed. Highlighting the role of social characteristics in that process reveals distortions in the land-distribution process. These distortions may be at the origin of the exclusion of the groups from the community in the long-term and be at the source of future tensions. The economic rational of activity choice and income diversification is then studied. The increasing involvement in arable farming and lab or-allocation decisions are economically justified as families maximize the benefits derived from their labor surplus. The analysis of determinants of production strategy and efficiency further contributes to explain the sedentarization process and highlights the risk of marginalization of some groups. Finally, the research looks at short-term and long-term intentions to diversify livelihoods. This analysis highlights the determinants of future income diversification strategies and underscores the risk of potential future conflicts over access to land.
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