A sequential multi-level generic decision support modelling tool for the development of energy projects

• Main Author: Aggidis, Eur Ing George A.
• Published: Lancaster University 2010
• Subjects: 333.794
• Online Access: http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.551648

An imaginative development of renewable energy schemes leads to power generation where the energy was previously dissipated. This thesis describes a generic model that integrates disciplines to address the barriers to deployment of hydro schemes; it uses North-West England as a case study for demonstration. The model focuses on the need to make an economic decision as to whether development is appropriate or not and is defined by a loop that links essential questions. Decision making is complex requiring a variety of data sources as evidence and forms of evaluation, in order to simplify, the process progresses through a number of iterations. By starting with simple questions regarding each component and identifying obvious show-stoppers the advice on the decision is made efficiently. Each iteration requires more detailed assessment, but by posing simple questions first, time is not wasted in solving detailed problems in one area before finding that the development is stymied by a much simpler issue in a later section of the loop. The decision requires information from a number of sources starting with the energy available at different times of year and under different conditions. To maximise the value of the research carried out, the model has been presented as a web- based tool', freely available to anyone with internet access. The tool follows standard web protocols and is intuitive in its application, using a hierarchy of menus. To demonstrate the operation of the model the quantitative aspects of the first iteration round the loop are described. Further iterations are presented without quantification. Schemes in different stages of development have been investigated ranging from initial concepts through to operating hydro systems. One scheme, at Heron Corn Mill on the river Bela just south of Milnthorpe has progressed through the course of this research from an initial idea through to a functioning power plant.