| Summary: | This study develops a loss estimation model for assessing the seismic economic implications resulting from damage to Greater Cairo’s building stock, as well as natural gas and electricity lifelines. The model estimates both the direct and indirect economic losses resulting from seismic occurrences. The developed model is composed of three modules. The first of which is the ground shaking module which estimates ground-motion throughout Greater Cairo. This is done through investigating the seismicity of Egypt and its surroundings, in order to develop recurrence relationships. Furthermore, through the use of geological and geotechnical data, seismic geological classification is conducted. This investigation is used along with three attenuation relationships to estimate ground-motion throughout Greater Cairo. The second module evaluates the damage to the building stock as well as natural gas and electricity lifelines. This is done through developing a building inventory database, and classifying structures in this database according to various classes. Moreover, data regarding components in the natural gas and electricity networks is collected, and through the use of minimum cut sets the networks’ behaviour is assessed. Finally, through the use of fragility curves the vulnerability of structures and components is evaluated. The final module estimates the direct economic losses associated with repairing damaged components. Furthermore, the indirect costs associated with business interruption resulting from disruption to elements in the built environment are also estimated. This study will pave the way for developing countries to recognize the impacts of earthquakes on their economies. Moreover, it will be useful for countries that exhibit a centralized economy that is dependant on major cities. Furthermore it provides a step forward in earthquake loss estimation to model multiple lifelines, rather than past research which modelled each lifeline separately.
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