| Summary: | Species have responded to recent increases in global temperatures by shifting their geographical ranges poleward and to higher altitudes. As the climate changes in the future, species ranges are predicted to shift out of existing nature reserves. One suggestion to mitigate this effect is to conserve areas which contain a range of microclimates in the hope that species will find refuge in some suitable locations even though the global climate changes. However, such potential conservation strategies require evaluation oftheir likely success before they can be implemented. This thesis addresses this issue through the application of ecological and microclimatic surveying and modelling techniques to investigate the role ofmicroclimatic heterogeneity in shaping plant distributions within mountain nature reserves in Scotland, UK. The main aim is to quantify the variation in microclimate across the reserves and determine whether this will be sufficient to conserve species under climate change. Mountain plants are often identified as being particularly sensitive to climate change, however this has mostly been investigated at a single, often large, spatial scale. In this study, plant-climate relationships are investigated at a range of scales, from continental to local. It is argued that a thorough understanding of climate change impacts can only be achieved through such a multi-scale approach. At the local scale, microclimate measurements across the study site are related to local long-term climate records and future climate projections, revealing that the topographically-driven heterogeneity in surface temperature is smaller than the projected future temperature changes at the site. The long-term climate records also indicate that snow cover may decline at high altitudes, leading to a reduction in suitable climate space for snow bed plants. In summary, the study develops methods to estimate climate change impacts within mountain environments and informs current discussions over how conservation policy and management should be adapted in response.
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