| Summary: | One of the major problems encountered in assessment of interactions between states over a period of time embodying major changes in foreign policy relations is the lack of comparative analysis. Relatively little attention has been focused on the development of a comprehensive relational concept which would permit longitudinal and comparative analysis of nonroutinized foreign policy relations. The emphasis of most studies has been on investigating a few specific major events from a variety of alternative approaches often relying on a single indicator for explanation of behavioral occurrences. This study seeks to go beyond these concerns by developing a more comprehensive relational concept from which to make comparative
evaluations of alternative explanations to major changes in foreign policy relations. Major changes in foreign policy relations are identified between subsystem members and hegemons in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Asia for the period 1954 to 1970. In order to ascertain the occurrence and direction of major changes in relations, the concept of distance has been operationalized on the basis of five behavioral indicators. These indicators include measures of trade,diplomatic contacts, United Nations voting behavior, conflict event/interactions, and cooperative event/interactions. Eleven cases of major change both toward and away from the hegemon in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Asia have been selected from the traditional foreign policy literature for validation of the measurements of distance change. The distance change measurements utilized in this research are able to identify the occurrence, direction and intensity of the major foreign policy changes between subsystem members and their hegemons as described in the traditional literature. An analysis of procedural requirements for distance change identifies 181 cases of major or dramatic changes across the three subsystems for the 1954 to 1970 time period. Two systems level relationships have also been tested to ascertain the impact of differing conditions in the international system on the direction and occurrence of distance change. Because of the absence of parametric data, Kendall's tau correlation coefficient has been selected to measure the relationship between distance change and systemic conditions. Consistently low correlations are indicated for the thesis that the level of conflict in the international system influences the direction of distance changes during the period 1954- to 1970. Little correlational relationship is also found between distance change and the level of Sino-Soviet conflict in the Eastern European and Asian subsystems for the 1963 to 1970 time period. The second set of systemic relationships tested concerns the effect of the level of conflict in differing "states" of the system (i.e., the bipolar and the multipolar periods) on distance change. The correlational analysis utilizing these time periods finds little support for the hypothesized relationship between distance change and level of systemic conflict in the Eastern European and Western European subsystems during the bipolar period from 1954 to 1962. The strongest correlational relationships between distance change and level of system conflict are indicated for the Soviet Union and the United States in the multipolar period (i.e., 1963 to 1970). Difference in the occurrence and direction of distance change relationships between subsystems and hegemons
suggests that an intervening variable, degree of hegemonic control, may influence the likelihood and direction of major foreign policy changes by subsystem members. A comparative analysis of a series of middle range theories which take into consideration subsystem structural relations
with the hegemon and variations in time periods may reveal more satisfactory explanations of change in foreign policy distance.
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