| Summary: | Pastures established using buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.) have shown heterogeneous responses in terms of forage production and permanence. A good alternative for determining establishment sites and predict trends in buffelgrass conditions is the use of simulation models. The objectives of this research were to determine the factors that regulate successfulness in buffelgrass pastures and to develop a model to determine suitability in areas managed for buffelgrass pastures, based on environmental, ecological, and management variables. Above ground biomass production was considered to determine suitability in sites with buffelgrass. Eight ranches with different geographic locations, environmental situations, and management conditions were sampled as preliminary study sites to measure and model plant production. The resulting model was used to estimate plant production in the 37 sampling sites of the study areas. Results of the study indicate that basal area is a good modeling parameter to estimate production in buffelgrass plants. I also found that plant production in buffelgrass is negatively affected by population density. I concluded that there exist a positive correlation between pasture management and buffelgrass plant production. Correlation analyses demonstrate that there exist significant correlations between Pasture Condition Index (PCI) and mean annual temperatures, aspect, pasture age, nitrogen and sodium content. However, after performing stepwise regressions, only three variables were significant: pasture age (PA), nitrogen content (N2), and mean annual temperature (MAT); the last two, produce a negative response on PCI.
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