Applying heuristic traffic assignment in natural disaster evacuation: a decision support system

• Main Author: Hwang, Kuo-Ping
• Other Authors: Civil Engineering
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 2015
• Subjects: LD5655.V856 1986.H826; Disaster relief > Data processing; Traffic engineering > Data processing; Evacuation of civilians > Mathematical models
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10919/54455

The goal of this research is to develop a heuristic traffic assignment method to simulate the traffic flow of a transportation network at a real-time speed. The existing assignment methods are reviewed and a heuristic path-recording assignment method is proposed. Using the new heuristic assignment method, trips are loaded onto the network in a probabilistic approach for the first iteration; paths are recorded, and path impedance is computed as the basis for further assignment iteration. The real-time traffic assignment model developed with the new assignment method is called HEUPRAE. The difference in link traffic between this new assignment and Dial's multipath assignment ranges from 10 to 25 percent. Saving in computer time is about 55 percent. The proposed heuristic path-recording assignment is believed to be an efficient and reliable method. Successful development of this heuristic assignment method helps solve those transportation problems which need assignment results at a real-time speed, and for which the assignment process lasts a couple of hours. Evacuation planning and operation are well suited to the application of this real-time heuristic assignment method. Evacuation planning and operations are major activities in emergency management. Evacuation planning instructs people where to go, which route to take, and the time needed to accomplish an evacuation. Evacuation operations help the execution of an evacuation plan in response to the changing nature of a disaster. The Integrated Evacuation Decision Support System (IEDSS) is a computer system which employs the evacuation planning model, MASSVAC2, and the evacuation operation model, HEUPRAE, to deal with evacuations. The IEDSS uses computer graphics to prepare input and interpret output. It helps a decision maker analyze the evacuation system, review evacuation plans, and issue an evacuation order at a proper time. Users of the IEDSS can work on evacuation problems in a friendly interactive visual environment. The application of the IEDSS to the hurricane and flood problems for the city of Virginia Beach shows how IEDSS is practically implemented. It proves the usefulness of the IEDSS in coping with disasters. === Ph. D.