| Summary: | <p>In an effort to monitor WNV across Saskatchewan, the provincial health
authority and collaborators established an integrated surveillance system for WNV.
Surveillance included both human and animal components, as well as environmental
variables including precipitation, growing degree days (GDDs), ecozone and landcover.
Post-season analysis of the integrated surveillance system included investigating which
surveillance variables were successful in predicting human risk of WNV infection in the
same areas, determining if clinical horse case data could be used to predict future
human cases of WNV, and establishing if early-season seroconversion in sentinel horse
herds could predict occurrence of human cases in the same areas.</p>
<p> Cluster analysis revealed significant clusters of human and horse cases of WNV
in space, time, and space-time; however, only space-time clusters of horse cases
preceded human cases by one week in the same area. Significant spatial clusters of
human and horse cases did not occur in the same areas. Both human and horse cases
clustered during the same time period under temporal analysis.</p>
<p>Spatial regression analyses were used to determine which components of
surveillance predicted increasing risk of disease in humans and horses in the same
regions where surveillance variables were collected. Environmental variables
predictive of increasing risk of human cases of WNV included increasing maximum ODDs. Maximum precipitation had a protective effect for both human and horse cases.
Both Culex restuans and Culex tarsalis mosquitoes were predictive of increasing risk of
human and horse disease. Increasing percentages of positive corvid birds were also
predictive of increasing percentages of human cases. The results of these analyses can
be used to guide future years' surveillance efforts for WNV in Saskatchewan.</p>
<p>Early-season serological surveillance of sentinel horse herds by detection of IgG
antibodies using an ELISA test was predictive of human cases of WNV in the same
regions. Detection of IgM antibodies in the same samples was not predictive of human
risk. Seroconversion of sentinel horse herds was predicted by decreasing maximum
precipitation, increasing percentages of Culex restuans and Culex tarsalis, and
increasing percentage of the rural municipality covered by water. Early-season
serological horse surveillance is an important surveillance technique to predict human
risk of WNV infection.</p>
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