Ain’t our business? A study of transnational climate change impacts on Swedish consumption through the lens of Brazilian soy

• Main Author: Lager, Frida
• Format: Others
• Language: English
• Published: Stockholms universitet, Stockholm Resilience Centre 2019
• Subjects: climate change; telecoupling; risk; supply chains; Sweden; soy; Brazil; teleconnected risk; transnational climate impacts; Environmental Sciences; Miljövetenskap
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170294

Over the past decades the world has become increasingly interconnected, and global commodity trade has increased substantially in scope and complexity. Simultaneously, we are rapidly moving towards a future with an increased risk of severe disruption caused by the effects of climate change globally. As trade flows can connect distant regions thousands of miles apart, they can also transmit risks of climate change via impacts on supply chains. This study examines these risk flows through a case study, focusing on exposure to climate change risks to the Swedish consumption of Brazilian soy. Taking in to account both the exposure of climate change to agricultural production in Brazil, and the potential climate vulnerability of the transport network that is used in the agricultural supply, this study brings together data and methods from eight different sources to assess climate risks to production and transport in a novel integrated climate risk assessment. The ability to link consumption data, production data and transport network information together at a municipality resolution constitutes a major innovation and step forward in climate-related supply chain risk assessment. The study find that future risks posed to Swedish sourcing of Brazilian soy are relatively low. Considering dynamic effects of the future market does however suggest that securing future supplies of soy can still be a challenging task for Sweden.