Technology learning in a global –local perspective : - the interplay between technology diffusion, niche markets and experience curves

• Main Author: Martinsen, Thomas
• Format: Doctoral Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for energi- og prosessteknikk 2010
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-11857; http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:isbn:978-82-471-2427-7 (printed ver.); http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:isbn:978-82-471-2428-4 (electronic ver.)

Preventing dangerous global climate change requires timely deployment of nascent energy technologies with zero or low CO2  emissions. Managing the shift to a common sustainable technology path calls for insight about the influence of global technological change on the national energy system. Moreover, national policies are required to promote the shift to the new technology path. This calls for methods to analyse the national energy system within a global perspective. The objective of the work presented in this thesis was to investigate interplay between technology diffusion, niche markets and technology learning from the perspective of a small open economy like Norway. More specifically, develop methods to include the influence of technology learning manifested in experience and learning curves into national energy-economy-environment models. Moreover, apply the methods to investigate the potential influence and sensitivity to technology learning in a small open economy. In this thesis three such methods have been developed, applied and its importance assessed using Norway as an example. In this work three models have been linked. They are the global Energy Technology Perspectives model operated by the International Energy Agency, the Norwegian Markal model at the Institute for Energy Technology and the macroeconomic model MSG6 at Statistics Norway. Method one and two has been developed to manage the interplay between the models. In a local perspective technology learning in the global market is perceived as spillover1. Based upon a review of the characteristics’ of technological change and learning curves and its application to energy system modelling some criteria important for the parameterization and modelling of spillover in a small open economy are suggested. The first method incorporates spillover into the national Markal model. The second method establishes a soft-link between the national models. The soft-link served two purposes; to provide input on demand for energy services to the Markal model and to carry forward the influence of spillover into the MSG6 macroeconomic model. With the soft-link it is possible to investigate feedback on demand for energy service from the non-energy sectors of the economy at a sector level. Finally, a method to evaluate technology specific national policies to the realization of a global scenario is suggested. The assessment shows that the national technology composition and CO2 emissions exhibit sensitivity to spillover and thus the global scenario. Moreover, spillover may generate substantial benefit for a small open economy like Norway. Without the spillover from international deployment a domestic technology relies only on endogenous national learning. However, with high but realistic learning rates offshore floating wind power may become cost-efficient even if initially deployed only in Norwegian niche markets. The influence of spillover on the non-energy sectors, though modest, is most pronounced on the industrial chemicals production. Implementing a technology specific policy, e.g., a feed-in tariff in response to an EU directive in addition to spillover and the general CO2 incentive, increases early deployment. The elucidation of the application of spillover on the national energy system analysis in a globalized energy technology market and the combination of spillover and a national soft-linked hybrid model, exchanging information at a sector level, and adds new elements to national policy analysis. Moreover, the exertion to coordinate national efforts with a portfolio of globally desirable low-carbon technologies provides a new indicator for the national contribution to a shift in the global technology path.