| Summary: | The electric grid is undergoing significant changes to meet challenges of improved load control and increased generation from renewables, as well as provision of new services. The main goal of this work is to study the impact of grid’s smartening on the electricity value chain. For this, we built a model to assess investments to come on the grid during the period 2010-2030, both on traditional equipments such as lines and substations and on smartening elements. According to the French example, yearly investments would double on average in the twenty years to come compared to 2010. In the three countries considered in this study, namely France, Italy and Sweden, most investments (between 61% and 76%) occur on the distribution area. Moreover, investments on traditional equipment stand for the lion’s share (68% to 80%) of the total, even if they are partly made possible by the smaller investments on smartening elements, which enable the network to be better controlled. The share of investments on smartening elements is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher on the distribution side than on the transmission side: this denotes the fact that the needed increase in control on the grid is larger on distribution than on transmission. Differences may exist between countries regarding forecasted investments and are mainly due to the number of customers, grid’s size and the chosen generation mix. The study ends with a discussion on the repartition of the value brought by forecasted investments between traditional stakeholders and players that may appear on markets driven by new business models.
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