| Summary: | The Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL)
has been used in making admission decisions for over 30
years; however, the predictive validity of the test has
been uncertain. The present study was intended to
investigate the predictive validity of TOEFL scores on
first term's grade point average (GPA). Participants
were 97 second-year university students, 46 male and 52
female, in an international academic exchange program.
Most majored in Humanities and Social Sciences. The
predictor variables in the study included TOEFL total
scores, TOEFL section I scores, TOEFL section II
scores, TOEFL section III scores, oral proficiency
interview scores, writing sample scores, and gender.
First term's GPA was the criterion variable. The data
were analyzed by multiple regression analysis with a
hierarchical procedure. The results were interpreted on
the basis of Cohen's (1988) conventional definitions on
the effect size of R².
The main findings of the study indicate that: (a) TOEFL
total scores have a medium level of predictive validity on
GPA (ΔR²=.142, ϱ<.001); (b) TOEFL section I scores have a
medium level of predictive validity (ΔR²=.044, ϱ<.05); (c)
TOEFL section II scores have a medium level of predictive
validity (ΔR²=.112, ϱ<.001); (d) TOEFL section III scores
have a negligible level of predictive validity (ΔR² =.005, ϱ>.05); (e) Oral proficiency interviews scores have a
negligible level of predictive validity (ΔR² =.010, ϱ>.05);
(f) Writing samples scores have a small level of predictive
validity (ΔR² =.047, ϱ<.05); And (g) gender has a medium
level of predictive validity (ΔR² =.130, ϱ<.001). The
findings of the study thus validate the use of TOEFL scores
as one of the requirements for admission in the
international exchange program and provide new empirical
evidence for investigation of the relationship between
language proficiency and academic achievement. === Education, Faculty of === Language and Literacy Education (LLED), Department of === Graduate
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