| Summary: | Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder argue that democratizing states typically go through a
"rocky transition period, where democratic control over foreign policy is partial, where
mass politics mixes in a volatile way with authoritarian elite politics, and where
democratization suffers reversals." In this phase, states become "more aggressive and
war-prone, not less, and they do fight wars with democratic states."1 Their theory is,
however, based on a deterministic conception of democratization which emphasizes
material "preconditions" rather than political actions; contains flawed assumptions about
the role of nationalism in the state formation process; and is not generalizable in the
manner which they claim. A n approach to democratization which examines the political
dynamics among the individuals and groups involved reveals a number of insights not
contained in Mansfield and Snyder's analysis which challenge their conclusions about
nationalism and war. Taking these political dynamics into account the democratic
transition on Taiwan reveals how, even in a tense and highly militarized security
environment, rather than forcing politicians to play the "nationalist card" in order to illicit
popular support, democratization actually weakened the power and influence of extreme
nationalist factions on both the Chinese nationalist (reunification) and Taiwanese
nationalist (independence) sides of the political spectrum. This phenomenon eventually
caused a broad consensus to emerge on issues of independence and national identity, to
which all major parties now adhere. Contrary to Mansfield and Snyder's theory, the
process of democratization on Taiwan directly corresponded with an increase in both the
authority and the legitimacy o f the central government as well as an increase in the
predictability of relations with the Chinese mainland. A similar pattern can likely be
detected in other states, a situation which strongly calls into question the applicability of
Mansfield and Snyder's theory to contemporary democratic transitions. === Arts, Faculty of === Political Science, Department of === Graduate
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