| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 公共行政暨政策學系 === 108 === As Taiwan's overall total fertility rate continues to slump, all county and city governments are competing to propose various types of maternity allowance policies, and hope to encourage people to give birth to increase the total fertility rate. However, according to news media reports, the maternity allowance policies of various counties and cities in Taiwan do not seem to promote the overall fertility rate of Taiwan, but instead form a welfare-induced migration of people to obtain a higher maternity allowance. The phenomenon may aggravates the problem of reducing efficiency in the allocation of public resources. Therefore, based on the curiosity of the welfare transfer phenomenon of the county and city maternity allowance policy, this study will conduct an empirical study on the relationship between the county and city maternity allowance policy and the immigration population of the county and the city, so as to explore whether there is welfare transfer in the county-level maternity allowance policy in Taiwan. phenomenon.
Regarding the relationship between Taiwan's maternity allowance policy and population migration, this study will use a completely different statistical regression analysis method from the past. First, to control the factors affecting population migration in counties and cities through cluster analysis method. Then, using the Difference-in-Difference method to analyze the relationship between maternity allowances in each county and the total number of immigrants, in order to examine the effect of the maternity allowance policy on population migration.Through the two-stage analysis process, this study has the following findings: From 2010 to 2017, in addition to Pingtung County, which did not implement the maternity allowance policy at the county and city level, there were 21 counties and cities that implemented the maternity allowance policy in Taiwan. Among the government, there are ten counties in Taipei, Taichung, Taoyuan, Kaohsiung, Keelung, Wuhu, Miaoli, Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin counties. The "direction" of the number of people moving into the population is in line with expectations. However, what is surprising is that if the size of the change is further checked, it will be found that the magnitude of the change does not reach a statistically significant. Therefore, according to this, Taiwan's county-level maternity allowance policy does not have the effect of affecting the migration effect between 2010 and 2017, that is, there is no so-called “welfare migration” phenomenon in Taiwan's county-level maternity allowance policy.
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