CEO Overconfidence, Management Forecast, and Future Equity Returns

• Main Authors: Hung-Chieh Huang, 黃泓傑
• Other Authors: Hsuan Wang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/g9gucx

碩士 === 元智大學 === 財務金融暨會計碩士班(會計學程) === 107 === This study is intended to explore the relationship between managerial overconfidence and financial forecast for Taiwanese listed companies from 2004 to 2018. Using Malmendier and Tate's (2005) overconfidence measurement method as a reference, and selecting Taiwan to adopt a voluntary financial forecast for the beginning of the year, to explore whether the overconfidence of Taiwanese company managers will affect the willingness to issue financial forecasts, and then sample it is divided into whether to issue financial measures, and then to explore the correlation between overconfidence and secondary stock price compensation. There are three main findings: First, the overconfidence of Taiwanese managers does not affect their willingness to publish financial forecast. Second, in a group with financial results released, overconfidence is not associated with secondary stock price compensation. Third, in the number of samples without financial forecast, the manager's overconfidence is positively correlated with the company's second-period share price.