The Evolution of North Koreas Nuclear Weapon Strategy: A Review of Nuclear Postures Optimization Theory

• Main Authors: WANG, YOU-CHENG, 王友誠
• Other Authors: TSENG, WEI-KUO
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/pq3yk5

碩士 === 國防大學政治作戰學院 === 政治研究所 === 107 === During the period from 2016 to 2017, North Korea’s large nuclear and missile tests have affected the security of Northeast Asia. The confrontation between the United States and the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) also increase the probability of war on the Korean Peninsula.The regional tensions and crises triggered by the development of nuclear weapons in North Korea have been commonplace. Therefore, North Korea’s intentions of nuclear weapons and the evolution of its nuclear strategy have become the main research motivation. The effectiveness of the nuclear strategy rely on the nuclear operational capability, and the composition of this overall operational capability can be called “Nuclear Postures”. Vipin Narang offers a systematic explanation of regional powers nuclear strategies and develops the “Nuclear Postures Optimization Theory.” The purpose of this study is to examine and infer the decision-making of North Korea’s nuclear weapons strategy in different periods by using this theoretical framework as a research approach. The author collects and organizes North Koreas nuclear development facets and speculates on the possible direction of nuclear postures. First, the article describes the definition, classification, characteristics of the nuclear postures, and explains the key variables and characteristics of the theoretical framework. Second, it integrates the evolution of the three dimensions of North Koreas nuclear weapons developmental factors. Finally, examine the development of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, and infer the evolution of North Korea’s nuclear postures to present the evolution of North Korea’s overall nuclear weapons strategy. The study found that North Korea has adopted a nuclear posture of “political catalysis” against China and the United States during the period of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. In the period of Kim Jong-Un, the nuclear posture changes to “assured retaliation.” For weaponization, North Korea uses ideology to legitimatize nuclear weapons research and development, and its intentions of nuclear weapons have evolved over time. At present, Kim Jong-un strived to improve nuclear weapons, missile capabilities, and strengthened the second -strike. The central government maintains a high degree of centralized control over command and control, and develops asymmetric forces and a large number of forward-deployed artillery to reinforce the nuclear deterrence. For the future, With Kim Jong-Un’s policy-shifting to denuclearization, the subsequent transition of nuclear postures may not neglect.