| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 政治學研究所 === 107 === East Asia has become the hotspot of international politics since the end of the Cold War. The developments of navy in the region have had many observers attention especially the expansion of People''s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN),which is the focus on the issue of navy in East Asia. Although Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) hasn’t remarkably expanded its quantity and quality, it seems that Japan wants to get rid of the constraints of the post-war institutions in recent years. According to history, competing for sea power often particularly caused Great Power wars. More importantly, the wars between China and Japan broke out twice in the past two hundred years. As a result, researching the naval strategies and developments of China and Japan in the post-Cold War is significant to evaluate East Asian situation in the future.
The study adopts realism as its theoretical framework and uses historical research, documentary research, content analysis and comparative method in order to clarify the national interests and naval strategies, and then assesses the extent to which the navies of both sides can ensure their national interests.
The study finds that China’s naval strategy shows offensive tendency and therefore conforms to the characteristic of revisionist state; Japan’s naval strategy shows defensive tendency and therefore conforms to the characteristic of status quo state. Owing to the military modernizations of states in the region and the United States’ military presence in East Asia, high conflict costs restrict the success rate of PLAN’s strategic objectives. Thus the possibility of a large-scale armed conflict in East Asia is not high.
Furthermore, China will continue its naval construction since China can’t attain its most strategic objectives. Also, the United States’ East Asian policy may be uncertain and consequently it cannot rule out the possibility of JMSDF’s expansion in the future. Moreover, most states in the region will be urged to carry on their naval military modernization in response to the naval developments of China and Japan.
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