Development and Benefit Assessment of Bus Disaster Response Decision Support Model

• Main Authors: Yu-Tung Liu, 劉禹東
• Other Authors: 張學孔
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ab98u4

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 土木工程學研究所 === 107 === Due to the impact of global climate change, governments around the world start paying attention to disasters caused by extreme weather and disaster response. The public transportation system is a critical indicator for assessing the mobility, accessibility, and sustainability of a city, but the integration between public transportation systems and disaster response systems has been ignored. During the natural disasters, the public transportation system not only bears the responsibility of diverting passengers but also bears the risk which vehicles and passengers being threatened by disasters. Therefore, how to accurately determine the risks and make decisions efficiently is a big challenge for government authorities and bus operators. This study aims to establish a bus disaster response decision support model to analyze the disaster conditions and provide the most effective decision to the operators. The results show that the bus operators can comprehensively consider the risk of various disasters for the bus route and evaluate all operational solutions to identify the most appropriate strategy. Sensitivity analyses show that vehicle value loss has a significant impact on decision making, and consequently, the model is less sensitive to the increase in passenger demand. Besides, the accuracy of weather forecasting has a critical impact on the model results. The error of the weather forecast will lead to severe deviations in the decision-making process, which might cause severe losses to the operators. The model developed can determine the operational plans of each shift for the operators in real time and allows the government to grasp the feasibility of the bus in service to assist in the evacuation operation.