| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 107 === This thesis examines the Trump Administration’s policy toward China from the theoretical perspective of offensive realism. Three hypotheses are proposed for theoretical testing: China is capable of being a potential hegemony, China is attempting to become a regional hegemony, and U.S. Government’s China policy has turned from being defensive to offensive. Various indicators of potential power, strategic objectives, and strategic choices are devised for hypothesis testing, which is followed by theoretical evaluation and review. The main conclusions of the research discovery are summarized as below:
I. Trump Administration’s China policy is mainly driven by international, national and individual factors: The policy is a strategic response to China’s external expansion since Xi Jin-ping took power. The policy reflects the rise of conservatism, anti-globalizationalism, anti-establishmentarianism, patriotism as well as the bi-partisan convergence in tougher stances toward China. The policy is also affected by President Trump’s personal factors such as conservative beliefs, disrespect for established precedents and distaste for communism.
II. China is equipped with both the capabilities of and the intensions to becoming a potential hegemony: Regarding capabilities, China has surpassed the U.S. in real GDP and is capable of waging a conventional war with the U.S. Regarding intensions, China is attempting to become the regional hegemony in the Asia-Pacific and Central-Southern Asia by means of Belt and Road Initiative, Made in China 2025, and militarization in the South China Sea.
III. Trump Administration’s China policy is based on the pillar of strategic balancing: Trump Administration overturns the “constructive engagement” policy honored by previous administrations and instead takes on a new offensive policy of strategic balancing. The policies comprises Indo-Pacific strategy based on “free and open” alliances, trade and economic sanctions supported by market-economy alliances, and South China Sea military operations backed up by quasi-military alliances.
IV. Offensive realism is a potent theoretical tool in explaining great powers’ strategies: China’s survival strategies as a potential hegemony-with hegemonic status, wealth, traditional forces and nuclear power as major objectives-are congruent with offensive realism’s theoretical assumptions and analyses. So are the U.S.’s survival strategies as an incumbent hegemony, with internal and external balancing in political, economic, and military aspects.
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