The Influential Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Financial Holding Firms Earnings, Before and After Financial Tsunami Periods

• Main Authors: LU,SHAO-YU, 呂紹宇
• Other Authors: Goo,Yeong-Jia
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/wz5r75

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 107 === The purpose of this study is to explore the impacts of the macroeconomic indicators on the profitability of the financial holding companies before and after the financial tsunami. The data comes from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) database. 15 financial holding companies were selected. The data period was from 2001 to 2017, and a total of 938 quarterly data were selected. The macroeconomic indicators include the leading indicator (LI), the coincident indicator (CI), the lagging indicator (LGI), the consumer confidence indicator (CCI), the Taiwan unemployment rate (UR), CPI, and the annual growth rate of Taiwans real GDP (RGP). The dependent variables include ROA, ROE, and EPS. The sample is further separated into three sub-periods based on the financial tsunami event. The study uses nonlinear regression analysis to perform statistical estimation and verification. The conclusions are as follows: 1. The linear regression analysis shows that CCI has a significant positive impact on EPS; CPI and RGP have significant positive impacts on ROA, ROE and EPS. 2. The non-linear regression analysis shows that LI and CI have non-linear significant effects on ROE and EPS; LGI, CPI have non-linear significant effects on ROA, ROE, and EPS; the RGP has a non-linear significant effect on EPS. 3. In the early stage of the financial tsunami, there was no significant impact on any dependent variables; in the middle of the financial tsunami, CPI had a non-linear significant impact on EPS; in the later stage of the financial tsunami, CI had a significant positive impact on ROA and ROE. At the same time, the squared CI has a significant positive impact on ROE; CPI, the squared CPI, the UR, and the squared UR have significant positive impacts on ROA, ROE, and EPS.