| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 應用經濟研究所 === 107 === In recent years, global weather warming, carbon dioxide continues rising, every countries urgently to find some clean energy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a renewable ocean energy near Taiwan has a huge potential, it has a warm flow throughout the year, with stable energy characteristics, so we selected the Kuroshio to generate power assessment as this article for the research object, the overall assessment of the overall economic impact of the development of the Kuroshio power generation industry in Taiwan.
This paper follow Taiwan's marine energy policy three stages objectives to simulation and comparison of Taiwan's Kuroshio power generation for the base target of 40 MW, the expected target of 250 MW, and the potential target of 1000 MW. Adopt Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method to evaluate the overall social benefits of Kuroshio Power Generation, which include the financial performance evaluation of the engineering economics of the individual Kuroshio Power Plant, and use the input-output model of the industry to simulate the development of Taiwan's overall black tide power generation and GDP Impact, this simulation scenario is divided into: (1) simulation of the supply direction, (2) simulation of the demand direction, and (3) simulation of the localization of components, and finally the calculation-driven industry-induced benefits (including salary increase benefits and camps) The social integration benefit assessment of the four benefits of Taiwan's development of black tide power generation in the external net benefit ofCO2 emissions provides reference for decision makers.
According to the life cycle of the Kuroshio Power Plant for 23 years, we simulate the future revenue of the Kuroshio Power Plant electricity source price is 2.1107 NTD in 2019, this simulation found that its financial benefits were not financially viable and it was not possible to recover costs during the life cycle. In terms of sensitivity analysis, if the current purchase price of offshore wind power is 5.5160 NTD, the financial performance shows a financially viable investment, and the cost can be recovered after ten years six months. In addition, the amount of electricity purchased by the Kuroshio Power Generation Industry must be higher than 3.6859 NTD, and the developers of the Kuroshio Power Generation are profitable.
The simulation results show that in addition to providing the supply side multiplier effect and the CO2 reduction price value is excellent, the simulated total output value, total GDP and employment efficiency on the demand side are also relatively high, and the benefits of localization of components are not obvious， The reason is because the proportion of its industrial chain is relatively small. So when somedays the proportion of domestically produced components is greater than 5%, the multiplier effect has a higher room for growth.
In the 23 years of the life cycle of the Kuroshio Power Plant, it can create 26,400 to 660,200 jobs, increase employment wages of 15 billion to 300 billion NTD, increase business income tax by 2 billion NTD to 50 billion NTD, and save 2 million metric tons. The 680 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions generate net carbon emissions worth about 800 million NTD to 218.5 billion NTD, equivalent to 12,146 hectares to 3036,477 hectares of a forestation.
In the social integration benefit assessment, based on the life cycle calculation, the total output value of the purchase price of 2.1107 NTD is 3,621 million NTD to 3,524,801 million NTD, the total GDP benefit is 27,827 million NTD to 3,379,231 million NTD; the total purchase price of electricity is 5.5160 NTD. The benefit is 44,548 million NTD to 3,684,335 million NTD, and the total GDP benefit is 38,754 million NTD to 3,538,765 million NTD.
The simulation results of this study give reference to policy and bring considerable economic benefits to Taiwan's industry. It is recommended that Taiwan's energy policy decision-makers include the Kuroshio Power Generation as an important project in Taiwan's energy development ratio, and improve Taiwan's power supply stability and sustained economic growth.
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