The Construction and Implication of Grey Forecast Model for Used Bulk Carrier Prices

• Main Authors: Her, Mong-Tang, 何孟唐
• Other Authors: Chung, Cheng-Chi
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/779552

博士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 107 === The traditional GM(1,1) models of the Grey theory all performed well enough to forecast the ship prices of Panamax second-hand bulk carriers in different periods with different sample sizes. With these findings, shipowners can better understand the assets of ships, improve the quality of sale and purchase (S&P), and strengthen chartering business strategies depending on their optimistic or pessimistic degrees towards S&P trading markets with the outlook for tramp shipping markets. The time series of traded ship price would be defined at first that is suitable for grey forecast. The one order accumulated generating operation (AGO) to the primitive sequence. Then the first order differential equation of GM(1,1) model would be to set up. The accumulated generating operation (IAGO) is obtained for the series. The new forecast value of the original forecast value would be caught after calculating. This paper shows that there are only a few differences in the accurate predictions among the traditional GM(1,1) model of the Grey theory for the ship prices of Panamax second-hand bulk carriers except abnormal traded ship price.