| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 107 === Cruise industry contributes to the development of the local economy and increases employment opportunities, creating economic benefits of cruise. Traveling by cruise has become a major type of international tourism in recent years, especially cruise market of the Asia-Pacific, which is booming. Cruise industry of Taiwan is in the growth stage. In response to the development of the Asian cruise market, cruise passengers are growing rapidly, and each port needs to be able to satisfy a large number of passengers.
This thesis mainly based on the Annual Statistical Report and open data portal of Taiwan International Ports Corporation, and uses the Grey Prediction GM(1,1) model and exponential smoothing method to predict the trend of the number of cruise passengers in Taiwan. The prediction results are analyzed by the residual check, root-mean-square error, and mean absolute percent error to find the best prediction mode. Then predict the number of cruise passengers of Taiwan in the next three years.
1.From the prediction results, it is known that the grey prediction GM(1,1) model is suitable for predicting the number of cruise passengers in Taiwan. After the accuracy analysis of the prediction results, it is found that the GM(1,1) six-stage sample model is the best prediction model The four models with the best accuracy are all short-term samples. Based on the above, in terms of grey prediction, predicting the data with short-term samples usually has better prediction performance.
2.This thesis predicts the number of cruise passengers of Taiwan in the next three years with the highest accuracy GM(1,1) six-stage sample model. The prediction indicates that the number of cruise passengers in Taiwan will continue to grow in the next three years, and reached 2.39 million in 2021. Corresponding to the literature in Chapter 2 and the statistical results in Chapter 3, it shows that there will be a growing trend of the cruise industry in Taiwan.
3.This thesis uses the interval prediction method to explore the factors that may affect the number of cruise passengers in Taiwan, and draws four conclusions: (1) The Relationship between the Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait (2) New Southward Policy (3) Infectious Diseases (4) Voyage Saturation.
4.In response to the increasing number of cruise passengers of Taiwan in the future, this thesis proposes three suggestions: (1) First invests in software construction and then develops hardware construction. (2) Cultivation of foreign language reception talents (3) Planning a rich shore excursion (4) Ports should enhance the efficiency of shuttle service
Overall, the results of this thesis are expected to be available to relevant Government agencies, cruise operators, and travel agencies as a reference for operations and planning, and to enhance the overall quality of ROC's cruise industry.
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