| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 107 === Taiwanese traditional society have the concept of “Along with real estate comes about wealth ” when those old men were young, they spend their cash to buy houses, it led to when they were retired, they have no money to use, for handle this special situation, government implementation reverse mortgage. Reverse mortgage can make real estate more liquid as loan to make live expense for householder without moving out their house , when the homeowner die, the homeowner must pay the house to the borrower. Reverse mortgage can make old man don’t begging their children for money, and make them more happy, healthy and be respected.
This paper attempt to using C.I.R model(Cox, Ingersoll and Ross Model) and ARMA(Autoregressive moving average model) model to estimate reverse mortgage’s two risk factor: interest rate and house price separately, and using government published abridged life table to solve the problem of longevity risk factor to modelling the reverse mortgage price model as the theory model, and using additional model which is more likely Taiwanese reverse mortgage’s program be the comparison. Finally, we find that the theory model has a large difference from the comparison model ,this article find that the reasons that can’t be quantified and cause the large difference are the asset specific risk including: right of inheritance, house maintenance fee , moral hazard and house depretciation, these asset specific risk factors will cause the borrower give lender annuity much more conservative, in the end of article will give advance for borrower to avoid risk and make reverse mortgage more popular.
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