The Accuracy of Brokerage Analysts’ Forecasts and The Factors Behind Them

• Main Authors: Ying-Chen Yang, 楊螢蓁
• Other Authors: Lo,Chih-Hsien
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6a2u4y

碩士 === 國立高雄科技大學 === 金融資訊系 === 107 === Practice field and academia are always curious about the accuracy of brokerage analysts’ forecasts.The thesis aims to research the accuracy of brokerage analysts’ forecasts and the influence of the previous increasing or shrinking stock price performance. In order to discuss the accuracy of analysts’ prediction, the study take Taiwan 50 and mid-cap 100 constituent stocks as the subject, and to study the stock price changes in the past three months or six months truly affecting analysts' forecast and the actual increase in the stock price. The result found that the accuracy is not high. Analysts’ predicted price changes will be affected by past price performance. However, it’s just a little. This implies that analysts will consider new information when predicting stock prices. The realized stock price changes will also be affected by past price performance. Also, the effect is only on the margin. The stock price changes should be significantly affected by new information and mildly affected by their own past performance.