| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程學系 === 107 === The management of water resources in Taiwan are under considerable challenges due to severe climatic conditions and uneven spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall. As a result, the drought in the dry season likely to become more frequent over northern Taiwan. Here, the management of groundwater has a particular interest due to reliable and clean water source. In order to effectively manage groundwater resources during the drought, this study proposed a methodology to incorporate seasonal climate forecasting as input in hydrological models.
The study area comprised of Fengshan Creek basin (250 km2) in northern Taiwan. A coupled surface water and groundwater model, WASH123D, was applied to simulate the seasonal groundwater levels. The simulation results reasonably approximate observed measurements for 2015 and 2017 historical rainfall event. The rainfall forecasting for drought events of selected years was generated from seasonal outlook issued by Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWB) incorporated with weather generator (WGEN) and used as input for WASH123D. The seasonal outlook results showed that, the total amounts of rainfall were accurately modeled but unable to capture the occurrence of extreme events which directly lead to inaccuracy for the prediction of seasonal groundwater levels. This study indicated that, the proposed approach provided valuable information for groundwater resource management and the prediction of groundwater level are sensitive to the accuracy of seasonal outlook.
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