| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 資源工程學系 === 107 === In recent years, Taiwan has been facing water shortages due to the impact of climate change, which has resulted in many serious drought events, especially in southern Taiwan. Long-term records from 25 rainfall stations and 17 groundwater stations in the southern Taiwan basin were used in this study. We used the stochastic methods including Markov chain and time series model based on drought indexes to determine the drought characteristics and predict the drought events. In addition, wavelet analysis was used to explore the linkage between atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Overall, based on the results of Markov chain analysis, the Yanshui River basin is a region with a high degree of drought where the steady state probability of the meteorological drought is higher than that in other basins and the drought mean duration is relatively longer. In addition, the results from the drought proneness analysis indicated that when rainfall causes a longer drought duration, there will be a higher degree of proneness to groundwater drought in the future. The results of the wavelet analysis revealed a positive correlation between precipitation and groundwater at long-term scales, which may be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Finally, we confirmed that the ARIMA model is suitable for drought forecasting in southern Taiwan and the results show that there may be relatively dry during summer in the year of 2020. This study continues the work of predecessors using a drought index analysis to assess drought events, where the new tool was added for the drought characteristics analysis and drought forecasting. The information from this research could be used as a reference for water resource management in the future.
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