| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 政治學系 === 107 === To date, there have been positive and negative argument on the impact of aid on recipient countries. Some studies have even suggested that aid can cause instability and unrest in recipient countries. Therefore, in the case of uncertain effects, the study hopes to explore the impact of aid on the outbreak of civil war through the mixed method. It not only conducts quantitative analysis on data, but also through case studies (Uganda and Afghanistan) to understand the relationship between civil wars and aid. The data interval for this study is time-series and cross-section data from 1960 to 2017, including 195 countries. The independent variable is amount of assistance, so the “binary logit regression model” is used for analysis. The study found that no matter what kind of assistance, there is a significant positive relationship on the civil war. The more aid, the higher the probability of outbreak of civil wars. This study believes that the mechanism behind the impact of aid on the outbreak of civil war is because aid has aggravated the economic grievance in the recipient countries and thus induced civil wars. Therefore, this study suggests that donors should be familiar with the political and economic situation of the recipient countries and the operation of local politics, and then set up a comprehensive punishment and supervision mechanism. In addition, they can cooperate with each other to establish a transparent aid framework or share information in order to allow aid to achieve its positive effect.
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