| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立勤益科技大學 === 企業管理系 === 107 === Because Taiwan’s geographical environment that is surrounded by sea, and trading is an important economic hub for any country, therefore sea and air transportation is closely related to Taiwan. Taiwan and mainland China that both sides of the strait have invested and traded frequently for decades. The developing Southeast Asian countries have used favorable conditions to attract foreign enterprise investment and, in addition, their labor force is much cheaper than the neighboring countries. Taiwan is not one of the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and cannot enjoy the trade reciprocal tariffs among member states.
The objectives of this study are: First, analyzing the trade trend forecast of Taiwan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in recent years. Second, using the attraction model to explore the factors that Taiwan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have invested in setting up factories. Third, exploring the trends of currencies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. This research utilizes regression analysis to predict the next quarter's import and export volume, with statistical data from 2014 to 2017 provided by government agencies. The attraction models reveal whether the annual volume of trade in and out is related to the GDP, GNI of the two countries (Taiwan and other countries).
The research results reveal that the forecast of import and export of the ASEAN, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam showed growth; while the Indonesia and Brunei showed a decline trend. Exports from Malaysia, Myanmar and Laos are risen; however, the imports are decreased; in contrast, exports from Singapore and Cambodia are declined and imports are rising. Whether the GDP and GNI will be impact the trade volume, the export to Thailand is significantly. The overall export model is significant for Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore; and the overall import model is significantly for Malaysia. The 2018 GNI forecast for the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia is significant. Finally, the forecast of exchange rate is significant for the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.
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