Issue-based vs. Second-order Voting: A Study of Voter Turnout and Voting Behavior Among Young Adults in the 2019 Belize Referendum

• Main Author: Cindy Karen Jones
• Other Authors: ROLANDO J.N. CHANG
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/29w97h

碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 國際事務碩士學位學程 === 107 === According to data, voter turnout, especially among the younger population, has been declining across the globe. This decline has raised many concerns among electoral stakeholders and signals major problems for democracies. A citizen empowerment instrument of direct democracy that is being used with increased frequency is the referendum. The issue with referendums however, according to research evidence, is that voters may not make decisions after comprehensively processing relevant information; instead, their decision-making capacity may be inhibited by their own biases and the political environment. Subsequently, voters might vote for or against a political party (Second-order approach) as opposed to on the issue itself (Issue-based voting). In contemplation of the above, this mixed-method research aims to predict voter turnout and examine how young adults in a democratic society, specifically Belize, make decisions on a serious, complex situation; voting in a referendum. To predict voting intention and better understand intended behavior, this study refers to the Integrated Behavioral Model (IBM) to shape its theoretical framework. Using the IBM as a guide, factors such as knowledge, attitudes toward behavior, and perceived importance are examined. Findings suggest that even though young adults have low-level knowledge about the issue, they still preferred to take a more Issue-based approach to voting in the Referendum on ICJ. Furthermore, most young adults perceived the referendum as being important, and expressed intent to vote; however, overall turnout was still low. Keywords: Direct Democracy, Referendum, Second-order Approach, Issue-based Voting, Integrated Behavioral Model, Voting Behavior, Government Satisfaction