| Summary: | 碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 風險管理與保險學系碩士班 === 107 === In recent years, climate anomalies and environmental damage have caused the impact of natural disasters to increase. In addition, Taiwan is located in the subtropical zone. In summer, typhoons and heavy rains often occur. In winter, it is affected by cold and frost, and the natural disaster risks of agricultural crops are difficult to completely evade. At present, the amount of natural disaster cash assistance of the Chinese government only accounts for 27% of the natural disaster losses of agricultural products, and the agricultural insurance plan is still not fully popularized.
According to statistics, the average annual loss of fruits in 2003 to 2017 is about 4,865,376/TWD Thousand, of which typhoon, 3,533,002/TWD Thousand (72.87%) accounted for the largest loss, followed by cold damage, 389,360/TWD Thousand. (8.00%), heavy rain, 354,208/TWD Thonsand (7.28%), the data shows that natural disasters have a great impact on fruit crops.
Therefore, this study attempts to use the historical loss data from 2003 to 2017 for a total of 15 days of typhoon, heavy rain, and cold damage to determine the natural disaster insurance premium rate. In this study, a total of seven fruit rates were set, including Wendan pomelo, mango, lotus, banana, pear, pineapple, custard, etc., and Monte Carlo simulation and decision simulation software Crystal Ball were used to calculate the risk value. Test the loss amount , the production cost and loss rate optimal probability density function.
According to the prediction results, the single rate of Wendan pomelo is 18%; while the historical simulation method’s single rate is (15%), and the predicted result is similar to the historical value. In addition to the Taiwan single rate, this study also considers the region rates, and is divided into northern and outlying islands; central; southern; and eastern . While Wendan pomelo is divided into four regions, the northern and outlying island rates are 10%; the central rate is 13%; the southern rate is 27%; and the eastern rate is 18%.
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