The Impact of Predicted Net Profit Compound Growth Rate on Stock Price——A Case Study of China’s A-Share Market

• Main Authors: LI, XIN-YUE, 李昕玥
• Other Authors: CHEN, XIU-LIN
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2019
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/46p344

碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 經濟學系碩士班 === 107 === With the expansion of China’s stock market, the research on Chinese stock market is becoming more and more important. How to choose stocks and reduce investment risks in unstable stock market has become an extremely concerned issue. Nowadays, investors often view financial indicators as important basis for stock selection. The indicators mostly come from the financial reporting data of listed companies. However, it is known that the financial indicators are lagging behind the changes. To deal with that, this paper introduces a new indicator called “Forecast compound growth rate of net profit” and studies its impact on stock prices. This paper tries to provide investors with alternative and feasible indicators for investment decisions, so that investors can make investment decisions based on more information than just financial reports. In this paper, the forecast reliability of this indicator exampled by the China’s A-share market is investigated. It turns out the vast majority of security dealer tends to exaggerate the forecasts. The results indicated that the growth rate predicted by Guotai Junan is higher than the actual value by about 20%. Therefore, the stock model is constructed based on the adjusted compounded net profit growth rate in addition to financial indicators. The forecasting accuracy of the stock model is tested. The results show that the overall accuracy of this model is acceptable. The accuracy of downward forecasting is significantly better than that of upward forecasting. Also, there is a great possibility that frequent trading will make a loss.