| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中正大學 === 會計與資訊科技研究所 === 107 === Financial statement fraud is a serious threat to company stakeholders and often results in huge losses every year. The use of public information to detect financial statement fraud can provide huge benefit to interested parties. We predict the probability of firms’ fraud by examining corporate traditional financial ratio variable to and construct a fraud forecasting logistic model in order to avoid damage by potential fraud. We find that for listed companies in mainland China, the company has a higher probability of financial fraud When the company is growing higher or the companys stock price fluctuates higher. Our model can also assist investors in their investment decision.
Fraud samples are selected between 1999s to 2017 from a database that covers all Chinese publicly list company. Financial variables may basically help identify the target companys financial situation however, in order to have an immediate response of business conditions, Thus, take financial variables are considered in this study to improve model forecast immediacy.
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