| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 產業經濟學系碩士班 === 106 === This study investigates the impact of economic, political and social globalization on fertility rate in consideration of common shocks. We analyze the panel data, consisting of 159 countries, from 1996-2015.In addition to estimating the world model, we examine the impact of economic, political, and social globalization on fertility rate, by dividing the sample into four groups, in accordance with income per capita—low income countries, lower-middle income countries, upper-middle income countries and high income countries. We mainly use the common correlation effects pooled (CCEP) estimator and improved common correlation effects mean group (CCEMG) estimator to analyze the impact. We also estimate the fixed effects model, the random effects model, and the dynamic panel model of two-step GMM estimators, for comparison. In the framework of the error correction model, the results of CCEMG indicate that the effects of short-term economic, political, and social globalization on fertility rate are all negative, which are the same as the results from the CCEP estimator. In long run, the effects of economic, political, and social globalization on fertility rate all have a change in sign from negative to positive. The long-run impacts of political and social globalization are statistically significant. In sum, according to the results of the improved common correlation effects mean group estimator, if a country wants to improve its fertility rate, it can start from the formulation of family welfare supporting measures and parenting related policies, but the fertility rate in the long run is determined by political and social aspects.
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