| Summary: | 博士 === 淡江大學 === 財務金融學系博士班 === 106 === Major public infrastructure projects adopting the build–operate–transfer (BOT) model generally exhibit characteristics such as a large capital and long concession periods. The basic assumptions and financial parameters in conventional financial evaluation models have frequently deviated from reality. In particular, the assumption of a fixed discount rate or the weighted average cost of capital exhibits the most significant effects on financial evaluations for BOT projects. Consequently, this practice may distort the evaluated financial performance, resulting in financial disputes between government agencies and private entities.
This study constructs an evaluation model that elucidates the effect of the discount rate adjusted by the endogenous growth ratio in a projected financial statement on BOT financial performance. The project cash flow evaluated by the periodically adjusted discount rate is used to evaluate the financial performance of a BOT project. Using the aforementioned variable discount rate, the case study reveals that the revised self-liquidation ratios for the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation and the National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium are approximately 56.17% and 172.02%, respectively. Notably, both figures differ substantially from the self-liquidation ratios estimated by the original evaluations using fixed discount rates.
The empirical results in this study demonstrate that the variable discount rate adjusted by the endogenous growth ratio in a financial statement assesses the cash flow of the project or the self-liquidation capabilities of a project more accurately than does the conventional fixed discount rate. Variable discount rate not only eliminates difference in discount rate estimation, but also exhibits stronger explanatory and predictive power on financial evaluations than does fixed discount rate. The research methodology in this study is suitable for practical operation in BOT projects and extension of the field in enterprise evaluation.
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