| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 財務工程與精算數學系 === 106 === In recent years, global stock markets have risen sharply, and share prices have reached many highs. Until recently, due to the tight Sino-U.S. trade relations, the Fed’s rate hike, and the weak US dollar, global financial markets have been shaken and fluctuate frequently.In order to alleviate the low rate of return and expected loss brought by market dilemma, and to achieve the purpose of capital preservation and risk diversification, investors gradually increased their share of structured financial products in asset allocation.
Structured products have a wide range of links. This paper mainly discusses interest rate structured commodities and uses the constant maturity interest rate exchange (CMS) as the link target; US dollar 2-year and 5-year CMS spread differential bond. As the research object, the LIBOR market model and the least square Monte Carlo simulation method were used to evaluate the theoretical value of its products, and to explore the income status of issuers and investors.
From the lognormal long-term LIBOR model and the Monte Carlo simulation, it can be seen that the issuer holds the early redemption rights to protect the upper limit of loss; CMS spreads are small but more than 0 are in line with the interest rate conditions are favorable to investors, However, it may also be due to redemption by the issuer without profitable space and risk of reinvestment; and from the recent evaluation results, it can be inferred that the price of the short-term interest rate fluctuation is greater than the fluctuation of the long-term interest rate, and the price of the price of the price is slightly lower.
The above evaluation and analysis of structural bonds hope to enable investors to better understand the characteristics of commodities and to use them as a reference for fair value.
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