| Summary: | 碩士 === 僑光科技大學 === 財務金融研究所 === 106 === This study is to examine whether there is a rational bubble in the house market of Taiwan, and uses quarterly data as the analysis frequency. There are 63 samples from the first quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2017 during the study period , and the study of this paper uses the rank test for nonlinear cointegration proposed by Breitung (2001). The study found that: There is no cointegration relationship among the house price of Taiwan and gross domestic product, rent, general price, number of building transaction, house income ratio, and loan burden ratio. In other words, the rise in the house price of Taiwan cannot be fully supported by increasing in economic growth, house rental income, and general price rise (inflation). Therefore, the house price of Taiwan will tend to be a rational bubble in the long run. (the house price will collapse in the long run.)
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