The Effect of Branding on Farm-gate Prices of Guava: A Case Study of Kaohsiung

• Main Authors: Chien-Chih Liu, 劉建志
• Other Authors: Kang Liu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/hcb7ep

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 農業經濟學研究所 === 106 === The research is observing the difference farm-gate price of guava. This study used the time series analysis and the methods of Exponential Smoothing (ES), Error Trend Seasonal (ETS), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), to analysis and forecast the farm-gate price of guava in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The farm-gate price data is divided into four production areas for observation, forecasting, and analysis. According to the results of the research, there are indeed price differences between different sources of production areas and such price differences may exist in different production and management of the product, or in the quality of the products themselves. There is a special operating system named “Common choice & Common pricing” in Yan-Chao farm-gate area as well. It is also a possibility of different marketing operations for branding as named “Yanzichao” which in turn affected the farm-gate price of different farms indirectly. At the same time, based on the time series data of previous years of farm-gate price, through the simulation of exponential smoothing simulation, EST simulation and ARIMA model, a prediction model of the farm-gate price was established, and what price forecasting model was most suitable has been compared in the research. Holt-Winters model is the most suitable method for farm-gate pricing prediction of A-Lian and Yan-Chao. On the other hand, the ETS model is quite suitable for Da-She and Mei-Non area to make the forecast of farm-gate price as well. Finally, the prediction of the farm-gate price of guava will be used to assist the farmer to increase their mastery of future farm-gate prices. At the same time, the purchase behavior of the latter stage will also be able to grasp the information of different farm-gate prices as well.