| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學研究所 === 106 === In recent years, the global climate change, uneven distribution of rainfall and the obstacle of developing new water resources, existing reservoir water is becoming more precious than ever. In addition, the reservoir sedimentation has decreased the effective storage and increased the difficulty of reservoir operation, affecting the reservoir’s function, of water supply and hydropower generation. Therefore, managing the limited water resources and enhancing the efficiency water resources utilization for optimal allocation becomes significantly important. In the past, studies usually focused on single water resources issue. However, under the population pressure and urbanization, the issue of Water-Food-Energy Nexus was highly valued. It is expected that a comprehensive and executable policy will be delivered to solve the problems faced by analyzing the interlinkages across different departments.
Since 2014, Taoyuan has become one of the six municipalities in Taiwan, and the satellite city of Taipei metropolitan area. Recently, the rapid population growth and industrial development make the water demand increase annually. Therefore, the TaHan River Basin in Taoyuan was selected as the study area to develop the system dynamic model of the water supply and the operation of Shihmen Reservoir. The future climate change impact on water supply and power generation were investigated, and the risk of water shortage for different adaptation strategies and potential effect on food and energy were analyzed.
According to the system dynamic modelling results, the water supply can still meet the demand at current stage, but the indicator also shows a growing risk of water shortage under the condition of increasing of target annual water demand and climate change. Therefore, developing new water resources or enhancing multiple water supply are definitely unignorably in the future. Results also indicated the hydropower decrease in the context of climate change. Hydropower mainly serves as adjust of peak loads of the entire power system. If the hydropower generation decreases in the future and the gap of the peak load cannot be replaced by other solutions, it could cause the entire power system unstable.
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