| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 經濟學系 === 106 === The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an important economic strategy in China. It has attracted the attention of countries because of its economic and geopolitical importance. The core concepts of BRI are composed of the “five areas of connectivity” and the six major economic corridors. This thesis focuses on the infrastructure links in the concept of “five areas of connectivity” and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the six economic corridors. The main purpose of this thesis is to provide a quantitative analysis for CPEC, and estimate economic impact for China, Pakistan and other countries.
To perform a quantitative assessment of the associated economic impacts, this thesis uses the Global Trade Analysis Project with its 9.a database. Two simulation scenarios are implemented to assess the economic benefits of CPEC, consisting of: (1) The investment phase: A total amount of US$62 billion is invested in the infrastructure of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and (2) The operational phase: The completion of the CPEC infrastructure, would like to a reduction in trade transport distance and transport costs.
The simulation results of this thesis show that under the phase of investment, the construction of CPEC can increase the real GDP of Pakistan by 9.48%. However, China would suffer a negative impact on real GDP. During the operational phase, it is expected that China will gain in terms of real GDP growth of0.257%. In the CPEC program, Pakistan’s electricity sector accounts for nearly 70% of the investment amount. Through the effects of industrial relations, this investment brings about a significant increase in the output of service sector. China's heavy industry, due to its high value, is the industry with the largest increase in exports and imports. In addition, the construction of CPEC has a negative impact on the import volume of China's oil sector. In terms of bilateral trade between countries, the construction of CPEC has made Pakistan's imports and exports to all regions increase sharply, and China's imports and exports to Pakistan and the Middle East have increased significantly.
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