| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 財政學系 === 106 === This research explores the choices of Taiwanese society facing the economic security of the elderly in recent years. The social public insurance income and expenditure are unstable, and families might purchase private commercial insurance to supplement or adopt birth decisions to protect their future. We observe whether there is substitution or complementarity between private commercial insurance and children. In order to discuss the current situation in Taiwan, we use the Panel Study of Family Dynamics: RR2014, the newest data. We apply the two-part model for the paper, the first stage we use Probit regression to analyze the probability of households purchasing private commercial insurance, and the second stage uses OLS regression to observe the investment amount of households who purchase private commercial insurance. The study finds that when households are faced with the decision to purchase private commercial insurance, the chances of families with more children buying commercial insurance are lower, and there is substitution between birth and private commercial insurance. When deciding the amount of commercial insurance to be invested, we find that the more children and sons, the more money they put into commercial insurance. It suggests that when the family chooses personal commercial insurance as the old-age security measure, it could be regarded as risk averse family.
Then, we add the conditions for the number of children, and it is analyzed whether the chance of insurance purchasing is lower with the same number of children because of the higher the number of sons. The patriarchal phenomenon in Taiwan might become weak. It doesn’t increase the chance of insurance purchasing when the daughters are much more. Perhaps because of the trend of fewer children in Taiwan, the daughters often share their own family responsibility as sons. Finally, we discuss the difference in the age of the household, and the difference in the decision to purchase personal commercial insurance. It shows that the household who have purchased insurance would buy a higher amount of personal commercial insurance at the age of 31 to 40. This is the stage at which there are more newborns in Taiwan. There are many preferential insurance options available for the family with newborns, so it may be the reason that households at this age range would purchase a larger amount of personal commercial insurance. Overall, our results show that there is a substitution between fertility and personal commercial insurance purchasing decisions. The risk-averse family insurance amount is positively related to the number of children.
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