| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 106 === Maritime transport is a critical means of transportation in international trade. The continued development of international economic trade has stimulated the maritime transport industry, resulting in global increases in the number of commercial fleets and demand for seafarers. The present situation with regard to available manpower for staffing international seafarers differs from that of the past. Seafarers are aging, and new seafarers are lacking. Accordingly, countries around the world have begun to focus on concerns of global seafarer manpower supply and demand. This study analyzed and determined the future trends of the supply and demand of seafarer manpower in Taiwan. This study according to statistical data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Maritime and Port Bureau, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, ROC, an absorbing Markov chain model and the GM (1,1) model of grey theory were employed to predict the supply and demand of seafarer manpower in Taiwan. The difference between supply and demand was calculated, and the development trend of seafarer manpower in Taiwan was analyzed. Results are showed as below:
1.In terms of supply of seafarer manpower, the manpower of deck officers and engineer officers in Taiwan are decreasing. The average of reduction rate is 1.52% and 5.92%. The average length of service for each rank, the master, chief officer and officer are 11 years 4.36 months, 6 years 7.31 months and 6 years 1.08 months. The chief engineer, first engineer and engineer are 11 years 4.21 months, 7 years 9.02 months and 7 years 11.85 months.
2.In terms of demand of seafarer manpower, the manpower of seafarers in Taiwan are increasing, resulting in Taiwan in the number of commercial fleets. The demand of seafarer manpower in Taiwan of growing rate is 3.26%.
3.In terms of supply and demand of seafarer manpower, the manpower of supply in Taiwan is decreasing. The manpower of demand is increasing. In terms of deck officers and engineer are the most shortage.
The results of this study may serve as a reference for the Taiwanese government, scholars, and the maritime industry for planning policies or managing seafarer manpower.
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