New Southbound Policy: The Developmental Trends of Ship Tonnages in Taiwan and Southeast Asian Countries

• Main Authors: Chou, Ping-Yu, 周品瑀
• Other Authors: Chung, Cheng-Chi
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/qdv7tg

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 106 === In recently years, the global shipping market has moved to Eastern. Since Taiwan is an island surrounded by the sea, shipping is not only the lifeblood for the development of foreign trade but also the competitive edge for the domestic economy. The article is mainly based on the data from the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) from 2002 to 2017 of the statistics from the New southbound Shipping Countries and Taiwan fleet, supplemented by UNCTAD (2002~2017). Using basic statistical analysis to compare changes in the structure of the New southbound Shipping Countries and Taiwan fleet, and to improve the accuracy of the GM (1,1) and the recursive residuals through grey forecasting. Then, analyze the overall development trend of the tonnage between Taiwan and the New South three countries. After that, use the mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute error percentage (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE) for accuracy comparison. The main research founded in this paper are as follows: 1.In recent years, the overall tonnage both Taiwan and New South three countries have been present year by year regardless of the number of vessels or deadweight tonnage. According to the increase in the size of the ship, there is indeed a trend of increasing ship sizes in all of them, but Taiwan is the most obvious. In Indonesia, there are more than 17,000 islands and coastal navigation rights. Though the current registration ratio is only 12%, to compare the rising rates of registration with other Asia countries such as India and global rates, Taiwan is the most significant one. In terms of age, to compare the ship ages of Singapore, India and Taiwan Consistent with the world, another trend of having younger vessels, Indonesian ships are the oldest. In terms of ship type and deadweight tonnage, the world is currently dominated by tankers and bulk carriers. Singapore, India and Indonesia mainly own oil tankers, and Taiwan mainly owns bulk carriers and container ships. If we examine the average shipping price, Indonesia has the largest number of vessels, but the average age is relatively high. Consequently, the average value of each vessel is relatively the lowest, while the total load in Taiwan is relatively high. It is inferred that the bulk carriers are mainly operated, resulting in average load per vessel and the lowest value of tonnage.   2.For the prediction of overall ship tonnage in Taiwan and the New South three countries, the grey forecast results show that both the RRGM (1,1) model and the GM(1,1) model are suitable for predicting ship tonnage development. In terms of expected performance, after testing the residuals, whether differential correction, with an average accuracy of over 90%, shows the grey prediction GM (1,1) and RRGM(1,1)The model predicts the overall development of ship tonnage in Taiwan and the New South three countries. If there is no major shock in the global economy, in terms of the overall growth forecast for ship tonnage, by 2020, Singapore will drop to 54,421 thousand deadweight tons, Taiwan will increase to 52,594 thousand deadweight tons, and India will increase to 23,390 thousand dwt, Indonesia. Increased to 20,496 thousand dwt. In summary, the ship tonnage in Taiwan, India, and Indonesia grew, with the only Singapore showing negative growth. The above findings provide the basis for the relevant shipping industry's future business management strategy planning, and assist the government's competent authorities in formulating relevant shipping policies.