| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 國際企業學系 === 106 === The purpose of this study is to explore the lead-lag relations of business cycles to the sales of "department stores", "supermarkets", and "Chain Convenience Stores", and "Retailing Warehouses". The data of the four types of integrated commodity retail sales are obtained from the Census and Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs from January 1999 to December 2016. To compare them with Taiwan's business cycles, we apply the Taiwan’s business indicators published by the National Development Council and the highest and lowest points of the stock market index. The results of the research are as follows:
First, the stock prices lead retail trades of general merchandise, so the stock prices can be used as a leading indicator of retail sales.
Second, the retail sales of the general merchandise leads the economy. Both the revenues and stock prices of department store industry all lag behind the economy, indicating that more people buy high-end products when the economy gets better.
Third, the fluctuation of stock prices is greater than that of the revenues.
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