The Inconsistency between Analysts’ Long- and Short-term Forecasts due to Mean Reversion

• Main Authors: Chung-Hsi Yang, 楊忠熹
• Other Authors: 黃承祖
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3j232b

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 企業管理學系 === 106 === The purpose of this study is to explore whether the mean reversion has an impact on analyst behavior. The researches discuss that the analysts are influenced by external pressure, forcing it to issue inconsistent forecasts reports. This study tries to discuss whether the analysts autonomously issue inconsistent forecasts reports for long- and short-term due to their own perspective. The study obtain the North American crude oil upstream industries from 2010 to 2016 as the research samples, and the crude oil inventories as the research subjects to test whether the analysts autonomously issue inconsistent forecasts for long- and short-term due to their own perspective under the influence of the mean reversion. The empirical results show that under the mean reversion of oil price, analysts regard unexpected changes in crude oil inventories as the short-term impact on oil price, long-term oil prices will return to the mean. When unexpected changes in crude oil inventories occur, analysts will adjust short-term earnings forecasts, but not obvious for the long-term. In the forecast revision, it will decrease as the forecast period increases. When unexpected significant changes in crude oil inventories occur, analysts issue short-term forecasts will be more frequently than long-term. In addition, the study found that estimating the enterprise value by Frankel & Lee (1998) valuation model can’t adequately describe the deviation between long- and short-term forecasts.