| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 政治經濟研究所 === 106 === Since the Great Depression in 2008, the rise and fall between America and China has become more obscure. Recently, following the cross-US tension in Asia, “Thucydides’s Trap” as well as power transition theory gradually become popular in both official and academic. In 2005, Allison used “Thucydides’s Trap” as an observation lens, publishing a series of his study results. He finds out that during the past five hundred years in human history, there has twelve cases which ended in war, and only four cases in which rising and ruling powers successfully completed their transition without war.
This research tries to figure out the reasons for avoiding war. Through a literature review in cases studies and the international relations theory, this research uses “cognition” as its independent variable, and then sets up a framework which based on Jervis’s concepts and three hypotheses for analyzing and testing.
According to the test results, countries will use other’s actions and words to decide whether other is trustworthy. When trust is unable to be built and deepen, the relation between countries will be very dangerous; on the other hand, when one country is willing to transmit costly signaling by making reassurance actions, nations have possibility to avoid war.
This research is not going to criticizing realism, author’s main purpose is to rethink power transition theory, and emphasize the importance of cognition in the meantime.However, cognition’s study still needs further scholars to put efforts on it.
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