The Relationship between Real Money Supply and Economic Growth in Gambia: A Cointegration and Dynamic Causal Analysis.

• Main Authors: Paul T. Mendy, 迪保羅
• Other Authors: Tsorng Chyi Hwang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/pbt5p5

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學系所 === 106 === The primary purpose of this research is to examine the dynamic relationship between real money supply and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study uses yearly data from 1965 to 2016, included 52 observations after adjustment. Co-integration test, the Vector Auto Regression model (VAR), the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality analysis were performed using E-view to examine the short and long-run relationship between the real money supply and GDP in Gambia. The results of the co-integration test indicate a long-run relationship between real money supply and GDP. The vector error correction -model results revealed a long-run relationship from GDP to the real money balance and a short-run relationship from real money supply to GDP. Furthermore, this study revealed a un-directional short-run granger-causality relationship from real money balance to GDP and a bi-directional long run granger causality between GDP and real money supply. The short-run relationship suggested that real money supply contain better information about the changes in the GDP and can be used to predict the current and future economic growth of The Gambia.